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TEX 7 / ARI 6
TEXTexas Rangers44%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks56%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterCal QuantrillConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
ARIHome starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
TEX44%ML +110
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
ARI56%ML -132

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.4 pts

Model (56.2%) and market (56.6%) are effectively identical on ARI, so no comparison either way; the pick rests on Eduardo Rodriguez (2.55 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) over Quantrill (2.89 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). ARI's 3.3 RPG and .564 OPS cap the upside, which is also why the model's 9.24 total looks too high versus the 8.0 line despite Chase Field's 1.036 park factor. Under is the cleaner side.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -109 betonlineag / U -104 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betmgm / U +114 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -132TEX / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total