sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CHC 7 / ARI 0
CHCChicago Cubs53%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks47%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline53%Model 20260824_auto
ARIHome starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
CHC53%ML -145
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
ARI47%ML +124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.0 pts

Chicago has the better record (75-56 vs 69-62), the better OPS (.694 vs .564), and the better starter: Gausman's 4.58 ERA/1.30 WHIP with 8.98 K/9 tops Kelly's 5.37 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Model at 53% is softer than the market's ~58%, so no strong comparison. Two below-average starters at Chase Field (PF 1.036) argues over 9.0, though the model's 10.12 overshoots.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kevin GausmanCHC starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Merrill KellyARI starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 bovada / U +116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-145 / +124CHC / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -111 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total