MLB / mlb / live
CHC 4 / ARI 5CHCChicago Cubs51%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks49%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterClay HolmesConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
ARIHome starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
CHC51%ML -110
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
ARI49%ML -106
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Clay HolmesCHC starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +124 fanduel / U -143 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.529%over
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 fanatics / U -135 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -106CHC / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total