MLB / mlb / live
CIN 3 / ARI 5CINCincinnati Reds44%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks56%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
ARIHome starterMitch BrattConfirmed
CIN44%ML +125
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
ARI56%ML -146
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +106 betrivers / U -129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Mitch BrattARI starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betrivers / U -150 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -146CIN / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total