MLB / mlb / live
CIN 11 / ARI 5CINCincinnati Reds39%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks61%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterRhett LowderConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline61%Model 20260817_auto
ARIHome starterMichael SorokaConfirmed
CIN39%ML +163
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
ARI61%ML -193
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 draftkings / U -115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Michael SorokaARI starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -144 draftkings / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+163 / -193CIN / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total