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LAD 2 / ARI 1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers52%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks48%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
ARIHome starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
LAD52%ML -200
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
ARI48%ML +167

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.5 pts

Market prices LAD near 63% while the model sits at 52.4% — a large gap I resolve toward the market. Yamamoto's 0.88 WHIP and 2.76 ERA over 133.7 IP is a clear comparison on Pfaadt (3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5.95 K/9), and LAD is 69-47 vs 62-55. Model's 9.89 total is well above the 8.5 line; Chase Field's 1.036 factor doesn't justify that with Yamamoto starting.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -106 fanduel / U -113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Brandon PfaadtARI starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -115 fanatics / U -104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-200 / +167LAD / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total