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SDP 5 / ARI 1
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks42%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
ARIHome starterKohl DrakeConfirmed
SDP58%ML -110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
ARI42%ML -109

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts

Model takes SDP despite worse record (59-56 vs 61-54) and lower RPG (4.9 vs 5.5) and OPS (.547 vs .564) — the mismatch flag argues against it. Market is essentially pick'em at -103, so I'll take the home side with the better offense at Chase Field (PF 1.036). Buehler's 5.18 ERA over 104 IP and Drake's 1.46 WHIP support a modest over on 9.0.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 betrivers / U -103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kohl DrakeARI starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -132 betrivers / U +113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -109SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total