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scheduled
SDPSan Diego Padres43%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks57%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterRandy VásquezProbable
Model pickARI moneyline57%Model 20260803_auto
ARIHome starterEduardo RodriguezProbable
SDP43%ML +114
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
ARI57%ML -134

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Randy VásquezSDP starter / away
Projected K2.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.573%
O 2.548%
O 3.527%
O 4.513%
O 5.55%
O 6.52%
O 7.51%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K4.3
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.579%
O 3.562%
O 4.543%
O 5.527%
O 6.515%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+114 / -134SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
31 books30 ML22 run line21 total