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MIL 7 / ARI 4
MILMilwaukee Brewers38%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks62%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterKyle HarrisonProbable
Model pickARI moneyline62%Model 20260629_auto
ARIHome starterJose CabreraConfirmed
MIL38%ML -138
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
ARI62%ML +118

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap17.8 pts

Model has ARI at 62% despite MIL's superior record (53-31 vs 43-43) and offensive metrics (.972 OPS vs .564). Market correctly favors MIL at 58.5%. Cabrera has only 10 IP this season; Harrison's 2.57 ERA over 77 IP is legitimate. Model likely overweighting short-run home pitcher metrics on minimal sample. Disagree with model, side with market on MIL.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -149 betonlineag / U +127 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%under
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Jose CabreraARI starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-138 / +118MIL / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -111 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total