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SFG 4 / ARI 5
SFGSan Francisco Giants56%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks44%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterTyler MahleConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
ARIHome starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
SFG56%ML +114
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
ARI44%ML -136

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.0 pts

Model leans SFG 55.8% vs market 44.6%, but ARI offense is weak (.564 OPS) and Rodriguez (2.27 ERA, 95 IP) is the ace. Mahle's 5.49 ERA is vulnerable. Market total 9.0 vs model 8.03; lean under given Rodriguez's form.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.7
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tyler MahleSFG starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 betonlineag / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanduel / U +110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+114 / -136SFG / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total