Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIN 16 / ARI 8
MINMinnesota Twins48%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks52%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterTaj BradleyProbable
Model pickARI moneyline52%Model 20260616_auto
ARIHome starterZac GallenProbable
MIN48%ML +100
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
ARI52%ML -120

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.9
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Taj BradleyMIN starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 fanatics / U +122 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Zac GallenARI starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 fanatics / U +134 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+100 / -120MIN / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total