MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / ARI 9MINMinnesota Twins45%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks55%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterConnor PrielippConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
ARIHome starterMichael SorokaConfirmed
MIN45%ML +144
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
ARI55%ML -172
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +123 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Michael SorokaARI starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 0 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 draftkings / U -144 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.586%under
O 3.572%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+144 / -172MIN / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total