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LAA 3 / ARI 4
LAALos Angeles Angels36%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks64%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterWalbert UreñaConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterRyne NelsonConfirmed
LAA36%ML +118
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
ARI64%ML -139

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.5 pts

Model has ARI at 64% but market only 55% — a 9-point gap flags structural overconfidence. LAA offense is vastly superior (5.8 RPG, .860 OPS vs 2.7 RPG, .564 OPS). Ureña's 2.44 ERA in 55 IP is real breakout form with strong K rate. Model likely overweighting home field and missing offensive quality gap. Lean LAA, under on 9.0 given pitcher-park slight tilt.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.7
Projected total8.7
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 fanduel / U -142 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Ryne NelsonARI starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 betmgm / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+118 / -139LAA / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -109 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total