MLB / mlb / live
WSN 14 / ARI 1WSNWashington Nationals59%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks41%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterFoster Griffin
Model pickWSN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterMerrill Kelly
WSN59%ML +112
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
ARI41%ML -132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.5 pts
Model likes WSN at 58.6% vs market's 45.2% implied—a 13.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. ARI's .564 OPS is 62-game verified weakness; WSN's .82 OPS and 4.5 RPG are legitimate. However, pitcher stats are null for both starters despite 10 GS each, creating structural uncertainty. Lean WSN but downgrade confidence due to missing pitcher context.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+112 / -132WSN / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -116
31 books30 ML22 run line21 total