MLB / mlb / live
LAD 2 / ARI 3LADLos Angeles Dodgers59%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks41%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterJustin Wrobleski
Model pickLAD moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterRyne Nelson
LAD59%ML -139
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
ARI41%ML +117
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.8 pts
Model has LAD at 58.6%, market implies 56.3% — reasonable convergence. ARI offense is weak (.564 OPS, 4.3 RPG) vs LAD (.743 OPS, 5.9 RPG). Nelson's 7.71 ERA in 4.2 IP is tiny sample; Wrobleski has null stats (likely similar sample issues). Both pitchers unreliable for total projection. Lean LAD on offense gap but pass on total given pitcher uncertainty.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-139 / +117LAD / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total