MLB / mlb / live
SFG 3 / ARI 5SFGSan Francisco Giants55%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks45%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLanden Roupp
Model pickSFG moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterRyne Nelson
SFG55%ML +102
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
ARI45%ML -123
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.1 pts
Away pitcher Landen Roupp has null ERA/IP/WHIP despite 10 starts listed—data quality issue makes total unreliable. Model picks SFG 55.2% vs market 47.1%, but offense_defense_mismatch flag fires (SFG worse record, worse offense). No credible comparison either direction.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+102 / -123SFG / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U 0
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total