MLB / mlb / live
SFG 3 / ARI 5SFGSan Francisco Giants55%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks45%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLanden Roupp
Model pickSFG moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterRyne Nelson
SFG55%ML +102
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
ARI45%ML -123
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap7.9 pts
Away pitcher Landen Roupp has null ERA/IP/WHIP despite 10 starts listed—data quality issue makes total unreliable. Model picks SFG 55.2% vs market 47.1%, but offense_defense_mismatch flag fires (SFG worse record, worse offense). No credible comparison either direction.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+102 / -123SFG / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U 0
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total