MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / ARI 12SFGSan Francisco Giants40%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks60%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterRobbie Ray
Model pickARI moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterZac Gallen
SFG40%ML +118
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
ARI60%ML -138
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.8 pts
Model likes ARI at 60.2% vs market's 56.4%, but both pitchers show tiny IP samples (Gallen 4.0 IP, Ray 5.1 IP) making season ERA/WHIP unreliable. Gallen's 9.00 ERA in 4 IP is noise, not signal. Market total 9.0 vs model 8.69 is close; slight lean under given Chase Field neutrality (PF 1.036) and both pitchers capable of better than current lines suggest.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+118 / -138SFG / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -114 / U -108
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total