MLB / mlb / live
NYM 1 / ARI 2NYMNew York Mets56%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks44%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterClay Holmes
Model pickNYM moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterMerrill Kelly
NYM56%ML -120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
ARI44%ML +100
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-120 / +100NYM / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -103 / U -118
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total