MLB / mlb / live
SDP 7 / ARI 12SDPSan Diego Padres53%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks47%
at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael King
Model pickSDP moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterRyne Nelson
SDP53%ML -130
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
ARI47%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.1 pts
Model predicts 9.3 runs; market set at 15.0. Park factor 1.522 is extreme but doesn't justify a 5.7-run gap. King's 0.00 ERA in 5 IP is obviously unsustainable but he's dealing. Nelson's 7.71 ERA in 4.2 IP is real concern. Market knows something structural we're missing; defer to the total under despite high park factor.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.3
Market total15.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-130 / +110SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context15.5O -110 / U -115
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total