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scheduled
SDPSan Diego Padres40%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks60%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterMichael KingProbable
Model pickARI moneyline60%Model 20260803_auto
ARIHome starterBrandon PfaadtProbable
SDP40%ML -102
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
ARI60%ML -116

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.3 pts

Model gives ARI 59.8% vs market's 51.7% — an 8-point gap I can't justify. King (3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.83 K/9 over 125 IP) is clearly the better starter than Pfaadt (4.00 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.13 K/9), so slight lean SDP at plus money. Model's 10.28 total also looks high against a 9.0 line with King on the mound.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K4.0
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betmgm / U -117 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.576%
O 3.557%
O 4.538%
O 5.523%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Brandon PfaadtARI starter / home
Projected K4.0
Best price at 4.54.5O +126 fanduel / U -158 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-102 / -116SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+126)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total