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SDP 1 / ARI 5
SDPSan Diego Padres40%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks60%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterMichael KingConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline60%Model 20260803_auto
ARIHome starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
SDP40%ML -106
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
ARI60%ML -112

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.0 pts

Model gives ARI 59.8% vs market's 51.7% — an 8-point gap I can't justify. King (3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.83 K/9 over 125 IP) is clearly the better starter than Pfaadt (4.00 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.13 K/9), so slight lean SDP at plus money. Model's 10.28 total also looks high against a 9.0 line with King on the mound.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Brandon PfaadtARI starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +140 bovada / U -166 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-106 / -112SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context0.3 (-16)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total