MLB / mlb / live
TBR 4 / MIL 5TBRTampa Bay Rays43%
MILMilwaukee Brewers57%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew RasmussenProbable
Model pickMIL moneyline57%Model 20261019_auto
MILHome starterLogan HendersonProbable
TBR43%ML +100
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
MIL57%ML -120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.8 pts
Model (56.9%) and market (53.1%) both favor MIL at home; small gap, no comparison to press. Henderson (2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 10.1 K/9) vs Rasmussen (2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) is a genuine ace matchup in a 0.95 park, so the model's 7.50 total looks a run too high versus the 6.5 line. Under is the cleaner side.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total7.7
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -120TBR / MIL moneyline
Run line context0.0 (-16)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -108 / U -111
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total