MLB / mlb / live
LAD 1 / MIL 2LADLos Angeles Dodgers44%
MILMilwaukee Brewers56%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterTarik SkubalProbable
Model pickMIL moneyline56%Model 20260928_auto
MILHome starterJacob MisiorowskiProbable
LAD44%ML -112
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIL56%ML -107
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.4 pts
Market is essentially a coin flip (-108/-101) while the model has MIL at 56.2%; home field plus Misiorowski's 1.80 ERA and 12.98 K/9 justify a slight lean, not conviction against Skubal (2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP). The model's 7.73-run total is 1.7 above the 6.0 line, which looks like a structural miss given the ace matchup and 0.95 park factor. Under is the cleaner side.
total far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total7.6
Market total6.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-112 / -107LAD / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-200)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML25 run line24 total