MLB / mlb / live
CLE 7 / TBR 3CLECleveland Guardians42%
TBRTampa Bay Rays58%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterFoster GriffinProbable
Model pickTBR moneyline58%Model 20260928_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenProbable
CLE42%ML +145
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TBR58%ML -170
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.7 pts
Model (58.4%) and market (60.2%) essentially agree on Tampa Bay, so the side is defensible. Rasmussen's 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 172 IP outclass Griffin's 3.60/1.21, and TBR's 3.8 RPG offense doesn't support a big number. The model's 8.07 total sits 1.5+ runs above the 6.5 line; that gap looks like a structural miss, so I'll take the under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.1
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+145 / -170CLE / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -116 / U -105
32 books31 ML25 run line24 total