MLB / mlb / live
CHW 0 / CLE 2CHWChicago White Sox46%
CLECleveland Guardians54%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean BurkeProbable
Model pickCLE moneyline54%Model 20260928_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsProbable
CHW46%ML +120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CLE54%ML -138
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A
No market odds available, so this is unanchored. Model's 54.4% on CLE is essentially home-field comparison only: Williams' 12.11 K/9 and 1.11 WHIP comparison Burke's 1.20, but CHW's 6.5 RPG and .729 OPS clearly outrank CLE's .600 OPS. Records are a game apart. Lean CLE at home, no conviction; total passes without a line.
market data missing
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -138CHW / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U -102
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total