MLB / mlb / live
scheduledPHIPhiladelphia Phillies46%
ATLAtlanta Braves54%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline54%Model 20260928_auto
ATLHome starterTyler MahleConfirmed
PHI46%ML -118
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
ATL54%ML -102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts
Model's 8.62 total is 1.6 runs above the 7.0 market line, hard to justify with Sanchez at 2.91 ERA/10.04 K9 and Truist at a 0.915 park factor plus a Philadelphia offense at 3.2 RPG and .570 OPS. Under is the cleaner call. Side is near pick'em: ATL's offense comparison (4.0 RPG, .789 OPS) and home field roughly offset the Mahle-Sanchez gap, so only a lean.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus-118 / -102PHI / ATL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total