MLB / mlb / live
scheduledCHWChicago White Sox44%
HOUHouston Astros56%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean BurkeProbable
Model pickHOU moneyline56%Model 20260928_auto
HOUHome starterHunter BrownProbable
CHW44%ML +128
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
HOU56%ML -151
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.6 pts
Model (56.2%) sits just under the market's 58.2% implied on HOU, so no side comparison; the mismatch flag is real since CHW has the better record (84-78) and offense (6.5 RPG, .729 OPS). Where the model misses is the total: 8.66 predicted against a 7.5 line in a 0.81 park factor venue with Brown (3.19 ERA, 10.4 K/9) vs Burke (3.34, 1.20 WHIP). Under is the cleaner position.
offense defense mismatchextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus+128 / -151CHW / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+149)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total