MLB / mlb / live
scheduledBOSBoston Red Sox46%
NYYNew York Yankees54%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterSonny GrayProbable
Model pickNYY moneyline54%Model 20260928_auto
NYYHome starterMax FriedProbable
BOS46%ML +116
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
NYY54%ML -138
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.2 pts
Model (54.4%) and market (55.8%) essentially agree on NYY, so no comparison to claim. Fried (2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) vs Gray (2.72 ERA) in a 0.933 park argues for a tight, low-scoring game; the model's 7.85 total sits 1.35 above the 6.5 line and looks structurally high. BOS listed 2.1 RPG against a .736 OPS is internally inconsistent, another reason to keep the side light.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total7.8
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus+116 / -138BOS / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total