MLB / mlb / live
CHW 6 / HOU 3CHWChicago White Sox39%
HOUHouston Astros61%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterHagen SmithConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline61%Model 20260928_auto
HOUHome starterAJ BlubaughConfirmed
CHW39%ML +105
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
HOU61%ML -125
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.0 pts
Model's 61.1% on HOU vs market's 53.1% is an 8-point gap on the team with the worse record (81-81 vs 84-78) and worse offense (5.9 RPG/.695 OPS vs 6.5/.729). Slight lean to CHW at +109, though Smith's 1.29 ERA rests on 28 IP and shouldn't be over-trusted. Daikin's 0.811 park factor argues under 8.0.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total7.9
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+105 / -125CHW / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -114
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total