MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-22 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics mybookieag
TBR at NYY Sep 22, 11:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDrew Rasmussen TBR starter / away
Projected K 5.5
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 90%
O 3.5 78%
O 4.5 63%
O 5.5 46%
O 6.5 31%
O 7.5 20%
O 8.5 11%
O 9.5 6%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Ryan Weathers NYY starter / home
Projected K 4.0
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 75%
O 3.5 56%
O 4.5 37%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 12%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
STL at PIT Sep 22, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndre Pallante STL starter / away
Projected K 4.0
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -149 betonlineag / U +132 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 76%
O 3.5 56%
O 4.5 38%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 12%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Jared Jones PIT starter / home
Projected K 5.6
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -126 draftkings / U +105 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 91%
O 3.5 80%
O 4.5 65%
O 5.5 49%
O 6.5 34%
O 7.5 22%
O 8.5 13%
O 9.5 7%
O 10.5 4%
O 11.5 2%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
MIL at PHI Sep 22, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDustin May MIL starter / away
Projected K 2.6
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -129 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 27%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 73%
O 2.5 48%
O 3.5 27%
O 4.5 13%
O 5.5 5%
O 6.5 2%
O 7.5 1%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Zack Wheeler PHI starter / home
Projected K 6.2
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -125 bovada / U +113 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 94%
O 3.5 85%
O 4.5 73%
O 5.5 57%
O 6.5 42%
O 7.5 29%
O 8.5 18%
O 9.5 11%
O 10.5 6%
O 11.5 3%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
WSN at DET Sep 22, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRiley Cornelio WSN starter / away
Projected K 2.9
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 78%
O 2.5 55%
O 3.5 33%
O 4.5 17%
O 5.5 8%
O 6.5 3%
O 7.5 1%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Drew Anderson DET starter / home
Projected K 4.3
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -145 fanatics / U +126 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92%
O 2.5 79%
O 3.5 61%
O 4.5 43%
O 5.5 27%
O 6.5 15%
O 7.5 8%
O 8.5 4%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
CLE at BOS Sep 22, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastParker Messick CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betonlineag / U -112 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 90%
O 3.5 78%
O 4.5 63%
O 5.5 46%
O 6.5 31%
O 7.5 19%
O 8.5 11%
O 9.5 6%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Payton Tolle BOS starter / home
Projected K 6.4
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +135 bovada / U -160 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 95%
O 3.5 87%
O 4.5 75%
O 5.5 61%
O 6.5 46%
O 7.5 32%
O 8.5 21%
O 9.5 13%
O 10.5 7%
O 11.5 4%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
TBR at NYY Sep 22, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDrew Rasmussen TBR starter / away
Projected K 5.7
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +102 fanduel / U -119 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 91%
O 3.5 80%
O 4.5 66%
O 5.5 50%
O 6.5 35%
O 7.5 22%
O 8.5 13%
O 9.5 7%
O 10.5 4%
O 11.5 2%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Max Fried NYY starter / home
Projected K 4.2
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +140 bovada / U -167 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 25%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91%
O 2.5 78%
O 3.5 59%
O 4.5 40%
O 5.5 25%
O 6.5 14%
O 7.5 7%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
CIN at ATL Sep 22, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Williamson CIN starter / away
Projected K 3.4
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -125 fanatics / U +115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 2.5 66%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85%
O 2.5 66%
O 3.5 44%
O 4.5 26%
O 5.5 14%
O 6.5 6%
O 7.5 3%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
JR Ritchie ATL starter / home
Projected K 5.3
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -149 betonlineag / U +125 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96%
O 2.5 89%
O 3.5 76%
O 4.5 59%
O 5.5 43%
O 6.5 28%
O 7.5 17%
O 8.5 10%
O 9.5 5%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
CHW at KCR Sep 22, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAnthony Kay CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.6
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +115 betmgm / U -134 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87%
O 2.5 69%
O 3.5 48%
O 4.5 30%
O 5.5 16%
O 6.5 8%
O 7.5 4%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Daniel Lynch IV KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.3
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +112 fanduel / U -132 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84%
O 2.5 64%
O 3.5 43%
O 4.5 25%
O 5.5 13%
O 6.5 6%
O 7.5 2%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
MIA at CHC Sep 22, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJanson Junk MIA starter / away
Projected K 2.9
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +140 draftkings / U -160 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 78%
O 2.5 55%
O 3.5 33%
O 4.5 17%
O 5.5 8%
O 6.5 3%
O 7.5 1%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Shota Imanaga CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.9
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -141 draftkings / U +115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 92%
O 3.5 82%
O 4.5 69%
O 5.5 53%
O 6.5 38%
O 7.5 25%
O 8.5 15%
O 9.5 9%
O 10.5 5%
O 11.5 2%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
NYM at TEX Sep 22, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Manaea NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.6
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -122 draftkings / U +105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 83%
O 3.5 66%
O 4.5 48%
O 5.5 32%
O 6.5 19%
O 7.5 10%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
MacKenzie Gore TEX starter / home
Projected K 4.7
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +119 draftkings / U -138 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 84%
O 3.5 69%
O 4.5 51%
O 5.5 34%
O 6.5 21%
O 7.5 12%
O 8.5 6%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
ARI at COL Sep 22, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael Soroka ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.6
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -101 draftkings / U -125 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86%
O 2.5 69%
O 3.5 48%
O 4.5 29%
O 5.5 16%
O 6.5 8%
O 7.5 3%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Kyle Freeland COL starter / home
Projected K 3.9
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -125 bovada / U +101 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 2.5 73%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89%
O 2.5 73%
O 3.5 53%
O 4.5 34%
O 5.5 20%
O 6.5 10%
O 7.5 5%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
HOU at SEA Sep 22, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCristian Javier HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.6
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +106 fanduel / U -130 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 83%
O 3.5 67%
O 4.5 49%
O 5.5 32%
O 6.5 19%
O 7.5 11%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Logan Gilbert SEA starter / home
Projected K 6.6
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +121 draftkings / U -149 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99%
O 2.5 95%
O 3.5 88%
O 4.5 77%
O 5.5 63%
O 6.5 48%
O 7.5 34%
O 8.5 23%
O 9.5 14%
O 10.5 8%
O 11.5 5%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
LAA at OAK Sep 22, 7:40 PM MDT / In progress / frozen pregame forecastYusei Kikuchi LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 bovada / U -158 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93%
O 2.5 82%
O 3.5 65%
O 4.5 47%
O 5.5 30%
O 6.5 18%
O 7.5 10%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Brady Basso OAK starter / home
Projected K 3.1
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +115 betmgm / U -135 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81%
O 2.5 60%
O 3.5 38%
O 4.5 21%
O 5.5 10%
O 6.5 4%
O 7.5 2%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
MIN at SFG Sep 22, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTaj Bradley MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +112 draftkings / U -120 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 90%
O 3.5 78%
O 4.5 63%
O 5.5 46%
O 6.5 31%
O 7.5 20%
O 8.5 11%
O 9.5 6%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Anthony Molina SFG starter / home
Projected K 3.8
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -141 draftkings / U +130 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88%
O 2.5 72%
O 3.5 52%
O 4.5 33%
O 5.5 19%
O 6.5 10%
O 7.5 4%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
SDP at LAD Sep 22, 8:10 PM MDT / In progress / frozen pregame forecastMichael King SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.7
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +124 fanduel / U -130 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 83%
O 3.5 68%
O 4.5 50%
O 5.5 33%
O 6.5 20%
O 7.5 11%
O 8.5 6%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Brock Stewart LAD starter / home
Projected K 3.0
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80%
O 2.5 58%
O 3.5 36%
O 4.5 20%
O 5.5 9%
O 6.5 4%
O 7.5 2%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.