Ranked picks with source labels.

Model gives ARI 59.8% vs market's 51.7% — an 8-point gap I can't justify. King (3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.83 K/9 over 125 IP) is clearly the better st...

Model has TOR at 57.6% against a market implying 45.3% for Toronto — a 12-point gap with no clear justification. TOR's .786 OPS is better, but thei...

Market is a near coin flip (-107/-103) and the model's 52.4% on SFG is within noise. Webb (3.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, full data) is the only known quanti...