ATL at HOU

Model's 70.6% on HOU is 15 points above the market's 55.2% while picking the team with both the worse record (77-77 vs 90-64) and worse offense (3....

LAD at 94-60 with 5.6 RPG and Skubal (2.70 ERA, 10.62 K/9, 0.95 WHIP) behind them is a defensible side against a 64-90 SFG club. But the Giants sta...

Model (61.4%) and market (62.7%) essentially agree on Cleveland, so no comparison to press but the side is defensible: OAK at 3.3 RPG and .512 OPS...

Model (58.8%) and market (58.6%) agree on San Diego, and SDP's 85-69 record supports it over Miami's 76-78. The model's 9.40-run total is nearly tw...

Model's BAL lean contradicts a 21-game record gap (96-58 vs 75-79) and a .972 vs .662 OPS comparison, which is exactly the offense/defense mismatch...

Market is a true pick'em and the model's 53.9% on TOR comes with the offense_defense_mismatch flag: Toronto has the worse record (76-78) and scores...

Model has NYY at only 53.9% while the market implies ~58%; here the market looks right. Schlittler (1.95 ERA, 11.11 K/9, 0.90 WHIP) is a clear step...