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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-07-01 / 27 starters
Market
Lines
CHW at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Noah SchultzCHW starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betrivers / U +128 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Dean KremerBAL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -132 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

TEX at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +106 betonlineag / U -117 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.523%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Joey CantilloCLE starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 fanduel / U -113 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%under
O 5.552%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

DET at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Troy MeltonDET starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U +109 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -119 betonlineag / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

WSN at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brad LordWSN starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%under
O 2.561%under
O 3.539%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -103 betrivers / U -103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SDP at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 betmgm / U +132 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Colin ReaCHC starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betmgm / U +126 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

NYM at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 bovada / U +108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Braydon FisherTOR starter / home
Projected K2.5Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.571%under
O 2.546%under
O 3.525%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

PIT at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +125 betonlineag / U -152 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%under
O 6.549%under
O 7.535%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 betmgm / U -136 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 7.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%over
O 8.517%over
O 9.510%over
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

STL at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 bovada / U -154 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Reynaldo LópezATL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 betmgm / U -149 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

TBR at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane McClanahanTBR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 bovada / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Seth LugoKCR starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 fanatics / U +118 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%over
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

CIN at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +114 betrivers / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Shane DrohanMIL starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 betrivers / U -116 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

MIN at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Taj BradleyMIN starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -131 draftkings / U +112 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%over
O 10.53%over
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Tatsuya ImaiHOU starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -143 betrivers / U +120 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%under
O 3.581%under
O 4.567%under
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

MIA at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Max MeyerMIA starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 bovada / U +120 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kyle FreelandCOL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betonlineag / U +118 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

LAD at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
J.T. GinnOAK starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betmgm / U -137 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

SFG at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trevor McDonaldSFG starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +102 fanduel / U -105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Zac GallenARI starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -106 betrivers / U -109 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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