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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-04 / 32 starters
Market
Lines
DET at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Casey MizeDET starter / away
Projected K2.5Did not start / void
Best price at 3.53.5O -165 draftkings / U +140 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 3.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%
O 2.545%
O 3.524%
O 4.511%
O 5.54%
O 6.52%
O 7.51%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K6.2Did not start / void
Best price at 6.56.5O -132 betrivers / U +116 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.594%
O 3.585%
O 4.573%
O 5.558%
O 6.542%
O 7.529%
O 8.518%
O 9.511%
O 10.56%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

MIL at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane DrohanMIL starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 fanduel / U -115 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Rhett LowderCIN starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 fanatics / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

ATL at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Chris SaleATL starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -114 betonlineag / U -104 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 6.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +110 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.560%under
O 6.545%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

LAA at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 betmgm / U -120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 draftkings / U -156 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

BOS at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betonlineag / U -122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -139 betonlineag / U +125 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

SFG at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -114 betonlineag / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Nolan McLeanNYM starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 fanduel / U -164 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

CHC at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -141 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Janson JunkMIA starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 bovada / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

DET at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew SearsDET starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinCLE starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 bovada / U -123 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIN at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 fanatics / U -108 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Erick FeddeCHW starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +140 betonlineag / U -170 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TBR at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +112 fanduel / U -130 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Trevor WilliamsTEX starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%over
O 2.557%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TOR at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jameson TaillonTOR starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -128 fanduel / U +106 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 2.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%under
O 2.559%under
O 3.537%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / home
Projected K2.8Actual 0 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +112 fanduel / U -124 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 2.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%under
O 2.552%under
O 3.531%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

ARI at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betmgm / U -147 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Cristian JavierHOU starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -155 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

STL at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -159 betrivers / U +139 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 2.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.566%under
O 3.545%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +125 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

NYY at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Max FriedNYY starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +134 fanduel / U -153 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 draftkings / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

OAK at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kade MorrisOAK starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 0 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +115 betmgm / U -115 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 2.576%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.576%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -115 betmgm / U +109 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%over
O 7.531%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%over
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

WSN at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jackson KentWSN starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -111 draftkings / U -113 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Blake SnellLAD starter / home
Projected K7.3Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -125 fanatics / U +136 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 7.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.572%over
O 6.558%over
O 7.544%under
O 8.531%under
O 9.521%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.58%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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