MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-03 / 18 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics
SFG at PIT Sep 3, 10:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBlade Tidwell SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 fanatics / U -128 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Lake Bachar PIT starter / home
Projected K 3.0 Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O +132 draftkings / U -167 betonlineag 2 books at this line
Model over 2.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 79% over
O 2.5 56% over
O 3.5 35% under
O 4.5 18% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
TOR at CLE Sep 3, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJosé Soriano TOR starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +140 bovada / U -170 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% under
O 3.5 69% under
O 4.5 52% under
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Tanner Bibee CLE starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +135 betmgm / U -143 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CHW at HOU Sep 3, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLuis Castillo CHW starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.3 Actual 3 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 64% over
O 3.5 42% under
O 4.5 24% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Hunter Brown HOU starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +106 draftkings / U -120 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 58% over
O 6.5 43% over
O 7.5 29% under
O 8.5 19% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIL at CHC Sep 3, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Henderson MIL starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 bovada / U -105 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Kevin Gausman CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 draftkings / U -118 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 24% over
O 8.5 14% over
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
BOS at BAL Sep 3, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJake Bennett BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -145 fanatics / U +115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Brandon Young BAL starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -147 betonlineag / U +120 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 68%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIA at KCR Sep 3, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSandy Alcantara MIA starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -123 betonlineag / U +105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% under
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Michael Wacha KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 betonlineag / U +110 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
TBR at TEX Sep 3, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane McClanahan TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betmgm / U +119 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Cal Quantrill TEX starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +130 betmgm / U -149 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% over
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
OAK at SEA Sep 3, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJack Perkins OAK starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betmgm / U -120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 25% over
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Kade Anderson SEA starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -142 fanduel / U +112 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
STL at LAD Sep 3, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastQuinn Mathews STL starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +102 fanduel / U -118 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Tarik Skubal LAD starter / home
Projected K 7.1 Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O +136 fanduel / U -169 betonlineag 3 books at this line
Model over 8.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 82% over
O 5.5 70% over
O 6.5 56% under
O 7.5 42% under
O 8.5 30% under
O 9.5 20% under
O 10.5 12% under
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.