Ranked picks with source labels.

LAD (60-33) hosting COL (38-55) with market at 68% vs model 66.5%. Hughes has 3.0 IP total this season—that's not a starter profile, expect bulk re...

Model has TEX 60.7% vs market 58.1%, a modest 2.6pp comparison. LAA's 0.86 OPS significantly outpaces their 2.8 RPG—run suppression context or smal...

Model has BAL 56% vs market 54%, marginal comparison. CHC offense (6.1 RPG, .694 OPS) far superior to BAL (3.6 RPG, .662 OPS). Kremer's 17.0 IP sam...

Model has TBR at 56% vs market's 55%, essentially aligned. The 9.08 total is 2+ runs above market's 7.0—a massive gap. McClanahan's 3.05 ERA in 80...

Away pitcher is TBD/fallback (10 GS, 2.28 ERA is team average). Burns is legit (2.40 ERA, 10.69 K/9 in 97.7 IP) but no market context to gauge PHI'...

Model likes SFG 52.7% vs market's 47.7% for TOR — a 5-point gap favoring the worse team (38-53 vs 43-49). Cease's 2.79 ERA and 13.65 K/9 in 90 IP i...

Model calls this a coinflip (50.05% MIA) but market leans SEA at 54.3% implied. Kirby's 104 IP sample is more reliable than Phillips' 69 IP. MIA's...

Model sees coin flip (50.0%), market leans MIN at 53.7%. Neither pitcher is sharp: Prielipp 4.96 ERA in 61.7 IP, Cecconi 4.44 ERA in 95.3 IP. Targe...