MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-07-09 / 13 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-07-09
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees+125
TBRTampa Bay Rays-150
Pick Probability61%TBR moneyline
NYYPaul BlackburnConfirmed
TBRDrew RasmussenConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
TBR / pass confidence / Rank 7

Away starter TBD plus no market data leaves too many gaps. Rasmussen's 2.78 ERA over 97 IP is legit but opponent pitcher uncertainty makes both sid...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
LAALos Angeles Angels+116
TEXTexas Rangers-138
Pick Probability60%TEX moneyline
LAAReid DetmersConfirmed
TEXNathan EovaldiConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
LAA / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has TEX 59.8% vs market 55.9% — mild comparison to TEX but not compelling. Model total 8.74 is 1.74 runs over market 7.0, triggering total_fa...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-172
CINCincinnati Reds+144
Pick Probability57%PHI moneyline
PHIJesús LuzardoConfirmed
CINBrady SingerConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.9
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals+120
NYMNew York Mets-141
Pick Probability56%NYM moneyline
KCRMichael WachaConfirmed
NYMSean ManaeaConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
NYM moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians-122
MINMinnesota Twins+104
Pick Probability56%MIN moneyline
CLEGavin WilliamsConfirmed
MINBailey OberConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
CLE / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has MIN at 56% but market says CLE 54%. That's a 10pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Gavin Williams' 10.41 K/9 over 106 IP is legit; Ober...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-07-09
Rank#1
SEA at MIASeattle Mariners at Miami Marlins
AI Analyst PickSEAstandard confidence
Agrees with modelSEA / 52%Model pick probability

Model at 51.9% SEA, market at 58.7% SEA (via -142). Miller's 1.71 ERA and 10.59 K/9 across 52.7 IP is legitimate dominance. MIA's 6.8 RPG offense meets a pitcher suppr...

Rank#2
CLE at MINCleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
AI Analyst PickCLElean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelMIN / 56%Model pick probability

Model has MIN at 56% but market says CLE 54%. That's a 10pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Gavin Williams' 10.41 K/9 over 106 IP is legit; Ober's 4.59 ERA in 67 IP...

Rank#3
MIL at STLMilwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
AI Analyst PickMILlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelSTL / 53%Model pick probability

Market favors MIL at 55.2% implied, model has STL at 52.7% - a modest 2.5pp gap. MIL's superior record (58-34 vs 48-43) and elite .972 OPS support the market view. Hen...

Rank#4
ATL at PITAtlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
AI Analyst PickATLlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelPIT / 53%Model pick probability

Model has PIT 52.7% but market implies ATL 52.6% — essentially a coin flip. ATL's .789 OPS vs PIT's .710 OPS is a meaningful comparison the model underweights. Keller'...

Rank#5
CHC at BALChicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles
AI Analyst PickCHClean confidence
Agrees with modelCHC / 52%Model pick probability

Model has CHC at 51.9%, market has BAL at 54.6% — modest disagreement favoring home side. CHC offense (6.8 RPG, .694 OPS) significantly outperforms BAL (4.0 RPG, .662...

Rank#6
LAA at TEXLos Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
AI Analyst PickLAAlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelTEX / 60%Model pick probability

Model has TEX 59.8% vs market 55.9% — mild comparison to TEX but not compelling. Model total 8.74 is 1.74 runs over market 7.0, triggering total_far_from_market flag....

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

13 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees+125
TBRTampa Bay Rays-150
Pick Probability61%TBR moneyline
NYYPaul BlackburnConfirmed
TBRDrew RasmussenConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
TBR / pass confidence / Rank 7

Away starter TBD plus no market data leaves too many gaps. Rasmussen's 2.78 ERA over 97 IP is legit but opponent pitcher uncertainty makes both sid...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LAALos Angeles Angels+116
TEXTexas Rangers-138
Pick Probability60%TEX moneyline
LAAReid DetmersConfirmed
TEXNathan EovaldiConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
LAA / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has TEX 59.8% vs market 55.9% — mild comparison to TEX but not compelling. Model total 8.74 is 1.74 runs over market 7.0, triggering total_fa...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-172
CINCincinnati Reds+144
Pick Probability57%PHI moneyline
PHIJesús LuzardoConfirmed
CINBrady SingerConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.9
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals+120
NYMNew York Mets-141
Pick Probability56%NYM moneyline
KCRMichael WachaConfirmed
NYMSean ManaeaConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
NYM moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians-122
MINMinnesota Twins+104
Pick Probability56%MIN moneyline
CLEGavin WilliamsConfirmed
MINBailey OberConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
CLE / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has MIN at 56% but market says CLE 54%. That's a 10pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Gavin Williams' 10.41 K/9 over 106 IP is legit; Ober...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+110
SDPSan Diego Padres-130
Pick Probability56%SDP moneyline
ARIMerrill KellyConfirmed
SDPGriffin CanningConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
SDP moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+110
SFGSan Francisco Giants-130
Pick Probability56%SFG moneyline
COLRyan FeltnerConfirmed
SFGCarson WhisenhuntConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
SFG / pass confidence / Rank 8

Home pitcher is TBD fallback; no market data to anchor against. Model likes SFG at 60.7% but with no named starter and COL's 7.0 RPG offense, struc...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-110
PITPittsburgh Pirates-108
Pick Probability53%PIT moneyline
ATLBryce ElderConfirmed
PITMitch KellerConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has PIT 52.7% but market implies ATL 52.6% — essentially a coin flip. ATL's .789 OPS vs PIT's .710 OPS is a meaningful comparison the model u...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-104
CHWChicago White Sox-115
Pick Probability53%CHW moneyline
BOSPatrick SandovalConfirmed
CHWAnthony KayConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
CHW moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+108
DETDetroit Tigers-126
Pick Probability53%DET moneyline
OAKJosé SuarezConfirmed
DETFramber ValdezConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
DET moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-130
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+110
Pick Probability53%STL moneyline
MILLogan HendersonConfirmed
STLAndre PallanteConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Market favors MIL at 55.2% implied, model has STL at 52.7% - a modest 2.5pp gap. MIL's superior record (58-34 vs 48-43) and elite .972 OPS support...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs+108
BALBaltimore Orioles-128
Pick Probability52%CHC moneyline
CHCDavid PetersonConfirmed
BALTrevor RogersConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model has CHC at 51.9%, market has BAL at 54.6% — modest disagreement favoring home side. CHC offense (6.8 RPG, .694 OPS) significantly outperforms...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners-128
MIAMiami Marlins+110
Pick Probability52%SEA moneyline
SEABryce MillerConfirmed
MIAJanson JunkConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
SEA / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Model at 51.9% SEA, market at 58.7% SEA (via -142). Miller's 1.71 ERA and 10.59 K/9 across 52.7 IP is legitimate dominance. MIA's 6.8 RPG offense m...

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