MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-08 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
CLE at BAL Sep 8, 4:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTanner Bibee CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -150 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 87% under
O 3.5 73% under
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Brandon Young BAL starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +119 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 70%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% under
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 52% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
HOU at PHI Sep 8, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHayden Wesneski HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -118 betrivers / U +105 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Andrew Painter PHI starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -122 fanduel / U +110 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
NYM at MIA Sep 8, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Manaea NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 bovada / U -159 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sandy Alcantara MIA starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 betrivers / U -120 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% under
O 2.5 83% under
O 3.5 67% under
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
MIN at DET Sep 8, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDean Kremer MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +102 draftkings / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Drew Anderson DET starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betmgm / U +105 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAA at BOS Sep 8, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastReid Detmers LAA starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -136 betrivers / U +111 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 47% over
O 6.5 32% over
O 7.5 20% over
O 8.5 12% over
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Patrick Sandoval BOS starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -142 fanduel / U +120 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
COL at NYY Sep 8, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGabriel Hughes COL starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 betrivers / U -149 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% over
O 5.5 24% over
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Cam Schlittler NYY starter / home
Projected K 7.3 Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -128 fanduel / U +118 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 92% over
O 4.5 84% over
O 5.5 72% over
O 6.5 59% over
O 7.5 45% over
O 8.5 32% over
O 9.5 22% over
O 10.5 14% under
O 11.5 8% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
TBR at ATL Sep 8, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFreddy Peralta TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -116 betonlineag / U +100 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% under
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
AJ Smith-Shawver ATL starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -136 fanduel / U +111 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
CHC at MIL Sep 8, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavid Peterson CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jacob Misiorowski MIL starter / home
Projected K 8.2 Actual 9 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -146 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 8.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 95% over
O 4.5 90% over
O 5.5 81% over
O 6.5 69% over
O 7.5 56% over
O 8.5 43% over
O 9.5 31% under
O 10.5 22% under
O 11.5 14% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
ARI at KCR Sep 8, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCorbin Burnes ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -156 betonlineag / U +140 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 2.5 74%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% under
O 3.5 54% under
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Michael Wacha KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +139 betonlineag / U -155 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
PIT at CHW Sep 8, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBubba Chandler PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 26% over
O 6.5 14% over
O 7.5 7% over
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Sean Burke CHW starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -106 betrivers / U -105 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% under
O 3.5 84% under
O 4.5 71% under
O 5.5 56% under
O 6.5 40% under
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
TEX at SEA Sep 8, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCal Quantrill TEX starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -104 fanduel / U -108 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Bryce Miller SEA starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 fanduel / U -140 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
WSN at SDP Sep 8, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRiley Cornelio WSN starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 4 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% over
O 2.5 60% over
O 3.5 38% over
O 4.5 21% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Casey Mize SDP starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 fanatics / U +100 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% over
O 5.5 18% over
O 6.5 9% over
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
TOR at OAK Sep 8, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJosé Soriano TOR starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +139 betonlineag / U -154 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Jack Perkins OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +124 fanduel / U -149 draftkings 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
STL at SFG Sep 8, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastQuinn Mathews STL starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 fanatics / U -113 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Landen Roupp SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -163 draftkings / U +134 betonlineag 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% under
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
CIN at LAD Sep 8, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNick Lodolo CIN starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -154 fanduel / U +130 betonlineag 3 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% over
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Tarik Skubal LAD starter / home
Projected K 8.2 Actual 5 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O +118 draftkings / U -120 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 8.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 95% over
O 4.5 90% over
O 5.5 81% under
O 6.5 69% under
O 7.5 57% under
O 8.5 43% under
O 9.5 32% under
O 10.5 22% under
O 11.5 14% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.