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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-09 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
MIN at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 bovada / U -123 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Keider MonteroDET starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +124 fanduel / U -155 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TOR at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Braydon FisherTOR starter / away
Projected K2.0Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.558%under
O 2.532%under
O 3.514%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Brady BassoOAK starter / home
Projected K2.4Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.569%over
O 2.544%over
O 3.523%over
O 4.511%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

STL at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -111 fanduel / U -108 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Blade TidwellSFG starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 draftkings / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TEX at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cody BradfordTEX starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betonlineag / U +114 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Kade AndersonSEA starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -156 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

WSN at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jackson KentWSN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 fanatics / U +128 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 draftkings / U -140 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CLE at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Foster GriffinCLE starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 draftkings / U -113 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

HOU at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Hunter BrownHOU starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +134 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 betonlineag / U -113 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%under
O 4.577%under
O 5.563%under
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

NYM at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Robert StockNYM starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 draftkings / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Janson JunkMIA starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +117 betonlineag / U -132 fanduel8 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.566%under
O 3.545%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

LAA at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betrivers / U -125 betmgm8 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jake BennettBOS starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betonlineag / U -133 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

COL at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 betmgm / U -103 draftkings8 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 betonlineag / U -145 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

TBR at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Griffin JaxTBR starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -109 betonlineag / U -114 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Reynaldo LópezATL starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 betmgm / U +125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CHC at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kevin GausmanCHC starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betonlineag / U -148 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Logan HendersonMIL starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +135 betmgm / U -153 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

ARI at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zac GallenARI starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +125 betmgm / U -135 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%under
O 2.558%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / home
Projected K2.7Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -111 draftkings / U -110 betmgm8 books at this line
Model over 2.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.574%over
O 2.550%over
O 3.529%under
O 4.514%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

PIT at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Lake BacharPIT starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +132 draftkings / U -167 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 2.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.537%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -115 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.565%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

CIN at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -115 bovada / U -103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K7.3Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -106 fanduel / U -111 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 7.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.584%over
O 5.572%over
O 6.559%over
O 7.545%over
O 8.532%over
O 9.521%over
O 10.514%under
O 11.58%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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