sharps.ggEvery pick graded

MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-10 / 8 starters
Market
TBR at ATL
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K4.0
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.555%
O 4.536%
O 5.521%
O 6.511%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K3.8
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.572%
O 3.552%
O 4.533%
O 5.519%
O 6.510%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

HOU at PHI
Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.3
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.594%
O 3.586%
O 4.574%
O 5.560%
O 6.545%
O 7.531%
O 8.520%
O 9.512%
O 10.57%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

TEX at SEA
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K6.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.584%
O 4.571%
O 5.556%
O 6.540%
O 7.527%
O 8.517%
O 9.510%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.6
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.588%
O 4.577%
O 5.563%
O 6.548%
O 7.534%
O 8.523%
O 9.514%
O 10.58%
O 11.55%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

COL at NYY
Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / away
Projected K4.6
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.511%
O 8.55%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Max FriedNYY starter / home
Projected K4.9
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.570%
O 4.553%
O 5.536%
O 6.522%
O 7.513%
O 8.57%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

PIT at CHW
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K5.5
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.578%
O 4.563%
O 5.546%
O 6.531%
O 7.519%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

sharps.gg