MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-11 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics mybookieag
PIT at CHC Sep 11, 12:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWilber Dotel PIT starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.2 Actual 1 K / Under 1.5
Best price at 1.5 1.5 O -183 draftkings / U +142 draftkings 2 books at this line
Model over 1.5 83%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% under
O 2.5 62% under
O 3.5 41% under
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Shota Imanaga CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +118 betonlineag / U -140 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% under
O 5.5 54% under
O 6.5 39% under
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
COL at DET Sep 11, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMason Adams COL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -142 draftkings / U +122 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Framber Valdez DET starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -126 draftkings / U +107 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
LAA at WSN Sep 11, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastYusei Kikuchi LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -124 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 26%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Cade Cavalli WSN starter / home
Projected K 7.3 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -146 fanduel / U +120 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 92% over
O 4.5 84% over
O 5.5 72% over
O 6.5 59% over
O 7.5 45% over
O 8.5 32% over
O 9.5 22% under
O 10.5 14% under
O 11.5 8% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
NYM at NYY Sep 11, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNolan McLean NYM starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +107 betrivers / U -120 betmgm 8 books at this line
Model over 6.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 64% over
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Carlos Rodón NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +102 betrivers / U -111 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 26% over
O 7.5 16% over
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
BAL at TOR Sep 11, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChris Bassitt BAL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +107 betonlineag / U -118 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Max Scherzer TOR starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -150 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
HOU at TBR Sep 11, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMiguel Ullola HOU starter / away Thin data
Projected K 2.9 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 78% under
O 2.5 55% under
O 3.5 33% under
O 4.5 17% under
O 5.5 8% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Drew Rasmussen TBR starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -104 fanduel / U -110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% under
O 5.5 54% under
O 6.5 39% under
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAD at MIA Sep 11, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBlake Snell LAD starter / away
Projected K 6.5 Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 76% over
O 5.5 62% over
O 6.5 47% over
O 7.5 33% over
O 8.5 22% under
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Ryan Gusto MIA starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -123 betonlineag / U +102 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
KCR at BOS Sep 11, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSeth Lugo KCR starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +144 fanduel / U -180 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 18% over
O 6.5 9% over
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Sonny Gray BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +150 betmgm / U -160 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
PHI at ATL Sep 11, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAaron Nola PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -108 fanduel / U -114 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% under
O 4.5 68% under
O 5.5 52% under
O 6.5 37% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Chris Sale ATL starter / home
Projected K 7.5 Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +107 betrivers / U -121 draftkings 8 books at this line
Model over 7.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 85% over
O 5.5 74% over
O 6.5 61% under
O 7.5 47% under
O 8.5 34% under
O 9.5 24% under
O 10.5 15% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CIN at MIL Sep 11, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Abbott CIN starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -156 fanduel / U +131 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 77% under
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Dustin May MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -130 bovada / U +108 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CLE at MIN Sep 11, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastParker Messick CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betmgm / U -141 betrivers 8 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Taj Bradley MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 bovada / U -152 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHW at STL Sep 11, 6:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAnthony Kay CHW starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +115 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% under
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Matthew Liberatore STL starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -120 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% under
O 3.5 85% under
O 4.5 72% under
O 5.5 57% under
O 6.5 41% under
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
SEA at OAK Sep 11, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGeorge Kirby SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betmgm / U +103 draftkings 8 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jeffrey Springs OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -161 draftkings / U +138 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% under
O 2.5 75% under
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
TEX at ARI Sep 11, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMacKenzie Gore TEX starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +127 draftkings / U -150 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% under
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Merrill Kelly ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -166 fanduel / U +130 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
SDP at SFG Sep 11, 8:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobbie Ray SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 bovada / U -114 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Anthony Molina SFG starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -105 draftkings / U -108 fanduel 8 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% over
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.