MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-12 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics mybookieag
COL at DET Sep 12, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTanner Gordon COL starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 fanatics / U +120 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 50% over
O 4.5 31% over
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Andrew Sears DET starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
NYM at NYY Sep 12, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZac Thornton NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 draftkings / U -156 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Gerrit Cole NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U -110 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% under
O 5.5 53% under
O 6.5 37% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
PIT at CHC Sep 12, 12:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPaul Skenes PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -135 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Clay Holmes CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betmgm / U -138 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
BAL at TOR Sep 12, 1:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Bradish BAL starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -120 bovada / U +117 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% under
O 3.5 54% under
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Spencer Miles TOR starter / home
Projected K 3.0 Actual 5 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% over
O 3.5 36% over
O 4.5 20% over
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
LAA at WSN Sep 12, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWalbert Urena LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -116 draftkings / U -102 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Andrew Alvarez WSN starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +118 fanduel / U -150 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 13% over
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
SDP at SFG Sep 12, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael King SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 bovada / U +102 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Cesar Perdomo SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -120 betonlineag / U +115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% under
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
CLE at MIN Sep 12, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDaniel Espino CLE starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 2 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% under
O 3.5 37% under
O 4.5 20% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Connor Prielipp MIN starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +140 bovada / U -164 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 81% under
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
LAD at MIA Sep 12, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Glasnow LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +128 fanduel / U -154 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 21%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 48% over
O 6.5 33% over
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Tyler Phillips MIA starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -132 draftkings / U +118 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
KCR at BOS Sep 12, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRandy Dobnak KCR starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +130 betonlineag / U -155 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Ranger Suarez BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 bovada / U +108 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% over
O 6.5 12% over
O 7.5 6% over
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
HOU at TBR Sep 12, 4:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPeter Lambert HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +132 betonlineag / U -160 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Ian Seymour TBR starter / home
Projected K 6.5 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -103 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 76% over
O 5.5 62% over
O 6.5 47% over
O 7.5 33% over
O 8.5 22% over
O 9.5 14% over
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
CIN at MIL Sep 12, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrady Singer CIN starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -102 fanduel / U -119 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Shane Drohan MIL starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 betonlineag / U +105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% under
O 5.5 57% under
O 6.5 42% under
O 7.5 29% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CHW at STL Sep 12, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Newcomb CHW starter / away
Projected K 2.6 Actual 4 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 73% over
O 2.5 48% over
O 3.5 27% over
O 4.5 13% under
O 5.5 5% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Kyle Leahy STL starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +138 fanduel / U -160 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 69%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
PHI at ATL Sep 12, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTim Mayza PHI starter / away
Projected K 2.1 Actual 4 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 61% over
O 2.5 35% over
O 3.5 16% over
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Tyler Mahle ATL starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 betonlineag / U -111 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 64%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% under
O 4.5 64% under
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
TEX at ARI Sep 12, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKumar Rocker TEX starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -118 betonlineag / U +101 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 38% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Brandon Pfaadt ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +116 fanduel / U -139 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% over
O 6.5 16% over
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
SEA at OAK Sep 12, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryan Woo SEA starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +112 betonlineag / U -136 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Gage Jump OAK starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +114 draftkings / U -139 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% under
O 3.5 80% under
O 4.5 65% under
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.