MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-13 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics mybookieag
COL at DET Sep 13, 10:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGabriel Hughes COL starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 betonlineag / U +120 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% under
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Jackson Jobe DET starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +136 fanduel / U -157 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 17% over
O 7.5 9% over
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
LAA at WSN Sep 13, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrayson Rodriguez LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 bovada / U +102 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Riley Cornelio WSN starter / home
Projected K 3.3 Actual 4 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 62% over
O 3.5 41% over
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
NYM at NYY Sep 13, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChristian Scott NYM starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -114 betonlineag / U +106 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 48% over
O 6.5 33% over
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Cam Schlittler NYY starter / home
Projected K 7.5 Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -144 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 7.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 85% over
O 5.5 74% over
O 6.5 61% over
O 7.5 48% over
O 8.5 35% under
O 9.5 24% under
O 10.5 15% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
PHI at ATL Sep 13, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Painter PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 betmgm / U -125 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% under
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Grant Holmes ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -103 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
BAL at TOR Sep 13, 11:37 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrevor Rogers BAL starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Dylan Cease TOR starter / home
Projected K 7.7 Actual 9 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -148 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 8.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 94% over
O 4.5 87% over
O 5.5 76% over
O 6.5 64% over
O 7.5 50% over
O 8.5 37% over
O 9.5 26% under
O 10.5 17% under
O 11.5 11% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
HOU at TBR Sep 13, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHayden Wesneski HOU starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +110 draftkings / U -130 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% under
O 3.5 53% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Freddy Peralta TBR starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -161 betonlineag / U +128 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAD at MIA Sep 13, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEmmet Sheehan LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +122 draftkings / U -118 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Eury Pérez MIA starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -136 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CLE at MIN Sep 13, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTanner Bibee CLE starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -162 fanduel / U +130 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% over
O 6.5 13% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Joe Ryan MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +126 draftkings / U -159 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 65%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% under
O 2.5 91% under
O 3.5 80% under
O 4.5 65% under
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
CIN at MIL Sep 13, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChase Burns CIN starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -145 draftkings / U +124 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 78%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Robert Gasser MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -160 fanatics / U +134 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CHW at STL Sep 13, 12:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavid Sandlin CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -165 draftkings / U +129 draftkings 3 books at this line
Model over 3.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% over
O 3.5 36% over
O 4.5 20% over
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Michael McGreevy STL starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -155 betmgm / U +140 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 67%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PIT at CHC Sep 13, 12:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBubba Chandler PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 bovada / U -121 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Matthew Boyd CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +106 betonlineag / U -115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% under
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
KCR at BOS Sep 13, 1:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNoah Cameron KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -123 betonlineag / U +114 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Payton Tolle BOS starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +116 fanduel / U -127 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 58% over
O 6.5 42% over
O 7.5 29% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
SEA at OAK Sep 13, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryce Miller SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -102 fanduel / U -110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jacob Lopez OAK starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -140 fanatics / U +128 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 70%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% under
O 4.5 70% under
O 5.5 54% under
O 6.5 39% under
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
TEX at ARI Sep 13, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCal Quantrill TEX starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -109 betonlineag / U -104 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 betmgm / U +114 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
SDP at SFG Sep 13, 5:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNick Pivetta SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -106 draftkings / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Logan Webb SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 draftkings / U +105 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 29% over
O 6.5 17% over
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.