MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-14 / 20 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics mybookieag
CHW at CLE Sep 14, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Newcomb CHW starter / away
Projected K 2.2 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 64% under
O 2.5 38% under
O 3.5 19% under
O 4.5 8% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Gavin Williams CLE starter / home
Projected K 9.3 Actual 7 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 8.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 99% over
O 3.5 98% over
O 4.5 94% over
O 5.5 88% over
O 6.5 80% over
O 7.5 69% under
O 8.5 57% under
O 9.5 45% under
O 10.5 34% under
O 11.5 24% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
LAD at CIN Sep 14, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTarik Skubal LAD starter / away
Projected K 7.2 Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -120 bovada / U +105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 92% over
O 4.5 83% over
O 5.5 71% over
O 6.5 57% over
O 7.5 43% over
O 8.5 31% over
O 9.5 21% under
O 10.5 13% under
O 11.5 8% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Nick Lodolo CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +121 draftkings / U -132 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
DET at TOR Sep 14, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTroy Melton DET starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 betonlineag / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
José Soriano TOR starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -140 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
BAL at NYM Sep 14, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Young BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -160 fanatics / U +149 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 66%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Jonah Tong NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -137 draftkings / U +110 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
NYY at MIN Sep 14, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWill Warren NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +112 fanduel / U -137 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% over
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Dean Kremer MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 draftkings / U +118 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
ATL at CHC Sep 14, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastReynaldo López ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betmgm / U -142 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
David Peterson CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 bovada / U -135 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
SFG at STL Sep 14, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLanden Roupp SFG starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 fanatics / U -125 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 48% over
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Quinn Mathews STL starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +115 bovada / U -139 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 24% over
O 7.5 14% over
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
SDP at COL Sep 14, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCasey Mize SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -131 draftkings / U +120 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% under
O 2.5 68% under
O 3.5 47% under
O 4.5 28% under
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Tomoyuki Sugano COL starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -160 betmgm / U +131 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 2.5 72%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% under
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
SEA at LAA Sep 14, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKade Anderson SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -114 betonlineag / U -106 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Reid Detmers LAA starter / home
Projected K 7.0 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -101 draftkings / U -110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 82% over
O 5.5 69% over
O 6.5 55% over
O 7.5 41% over
O 8.5 28% under
O 9.5 19% under
O 10.5 11% under
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
MIA at ARI Sep 14, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSandy Alcantara MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -125 bovada / U +110 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 49% over
O 4.5 30% over
O 5.5 17% over
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Corbin Burnes ARI starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -143 betonlineag / U +121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 72%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.