Ranked picks with source labels.

Model at 67.3% vs market 66.8% on DET — near consensus. Skubal's 2.81 ERA in 48 IP is solid but Fedde's 4.50 ERA creates mismatch. Model total 8.93...

Model at 58.3% vs market 59.2% on TEX is aligned. But model total of 8.93 runs vs market 7.0 is a 1.93-run gap—structural miss. DeGrom (3.17 ERA, 1...

Model has CHC 55.5% vs market 52.4%—minor comparison. But Brown's 1.74 ERA in 62 IP is elite, Gausman 3.41 in 87 IP is solid: ace matchup. Model to...