Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has KCR at 62% vs market 54%. Both starters mediocre (Cameron 4.89 ERA, Márquez 5.18 ERA over 10 GS each). Market total 10.0 runs seems high...

Model has BOS 61% vs market 53% — an 8-point gap triggers the disagreement flag but Gray/McClanahan ace matchup (2.54/2.83 ERA, 95/86 IP) argues fo...

Model has PHI at 58.3% but market implies NYM at 54.3% — a 12.6pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. NYM's superior offense (5.1 RPG, .736 O...

Market implies 61.9% SEA, model has 58.3%—market is more confident than model. Gilbert (3.32 ERA) and Ray (3.38 ERA) qualify as ace matchup at T-Mo...

Model has LAD 57.6%, market implies 52.6% — modest comparison. Weathers 4.15 ERA at home in pitcher park vs Sheehan 4.81 ERA suggests tighter game...