MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-21 / 7 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-21
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays+121
NYYNew York Yankees-145
Pick Probability64%NYY moneyline
TORBraydon Fisher
NYYCarlos Rodón
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.4
AI Analyst
NYY / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model has NYY at 64% vs market 59%, a modest 5pt comparison. Fisher has 2.1 IP this season—effectively unknown. Rodón's missing ERA/WHIP makes both...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+177
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-210
Pick Probability63%ARI moneyline
COLZach Agnos
ARIEduardo Rodriguez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
ARI / pass confidence / Rank 4

Rodriguez has 5.0 IP across 10 starts (0.5 IP/start avg) — clearly injured/unavailable most of season. Agnos has 1.1 IP total. Both pitcher lines a...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-120
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+102
Pick Probability58%STL moneyline
PITBraxton Ashcraft
STLDustin May
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
PIT / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has STL 58% vs market 45%, a 13-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Dustin May's 13.5 ERA in 4.0 IP is catastrophically small sample; As...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians+101
DETDetroit Tigers-120
Pick Probability58%DET moneyline
CLEJoey Cantillo
DETCasey Mize
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
CLE / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors DET at 57.5% vs market 51.7%, but DET is 20-30 scoring 2.6 RPG (.582 OPS) while CLE is 29-22 at 5.6 RPG. Missing pitcher stats for Miz...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-112
WSNWashington Nationals-105
Pick Probability58%WSN moneyline
NYMDavid Peterson
WSNCade Cavalli
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
WSN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Published Slate Notes

MLB Daily Picks — May 21, 2026

Daily Picks — May 21, 2026 2 higher-confidence spots · 1 underdog lean · 2 total notes High-Confidence moneyline notes TOR @ NYY — May 21, 2026 [HIGH CONFIDENCE] Our model: NYY -1.4 | Total 8.8 Vegas: NYY -1.5 | Total 8.0 Confidence: 64.1% (picks NYY) Why we like NYY: - Braydon Fisher struggling:...

Games reviewed cover the published slate notes. Ranked analyst picks are the matchups with public AI Analyst rankings, so the counts can differ.

4 games reviewed3 ranked analyst picks2 higher-confidence spots1 underdog lean
  • Top confidence matchupTOR @ NYY
View ranked picks

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-21

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

7 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays+121
NYYNew York Yankees-145
Pick Probability64%NYY moneyline
TORBraydon Fisher
NYYCarlos Rodón
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.4
AI Analyst
NYY / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model has NYY at 64% vs market 59%, a modest 5pt comparison. Fisher has 2.1 IP this season—effectively unknown. Rodón's missing ERA/WHIP makes both...

MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+177
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-210
Pick Probability63%ARI moneyline
COLZach Agnos
ARIEduardo Rodriguez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
ARI / pass confidence / Rank 4

Rodriguez has 5.0 IP across 10 starts (0.5 IP/start avg) — clearly injured/unavailable most of season. Agnos has 1.1 IP total. Both pitcher lines a...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-120
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+102
Pick Probability58%STL moneyline
PITBraxton Ashcraft
STLDustin May
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
PIT / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has STL 58% vs market 45%, a 13-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Dustin May's 13.5 ERA in 4.0 IP is catastrophically small sample; As...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians+101
DETDetroit Tigers-120
Pick Probability58%DET moneyline
CLEJoey Cantillo
DETCasey Mize
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
CLE / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors DET at 57.5% vs market 51.7%, but DET is 20-30 scoring 2.6 RPG (.582 OPS) while CLE is 29-22 at 5.6 RPG. Missing pitcher stats for Miz...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-112
WSNWashington Nationals-105
Pick Probability58%WSN moneyline
NYMDavid Peterson
WSNCade Cavalli
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
WSN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+100
LAALos Angeles Angels-120
Pick Probability54%LAA moneyline
OAKLuis Severino
LAAJosé Soriano
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
LAA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-139
MIAMiami Marlins+120
Pick Probability52%ATL moneyline
ATLSpencer Strider
MIASandy Alcantara
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
ATL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

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