MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-08 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
TOR at SFG Jul 8, 1:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDylan Cease TOR starter / away
Projected K 7.2 Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -150 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 83% over
O 5.5 71% over
O 6.5 57% over
O 7.5 43% over
O 8.5 30% over
O 9.5 20% over
O 10.5 12% over
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Logan Webb SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -119 betonlineag / U -104 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
CHC at BAL Jul 8, 4:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastColin Rea CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 bovada / U -165 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% under
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Dean Kremer BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +127 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
NYY at TBR Jul 8, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGerrit Cole NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -140 betmgm / U +115 fanatics 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 39% over
O 5.5 23% over
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Shane McClanahan TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -106 fanduel / U -112 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
ATL at PIT Jul 8, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrant Holmes ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -128 fanduel / U +111 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jared Jones PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +120 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 18% over
O 7.5 10% over
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
SEA at MIA Jul 8, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGeorge Kirby SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -145 betmgm / U +122 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Tyler Phillips MIA starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -148 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
OAK at DET Jul 8, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJeffrey Springs OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betonlineag / U -120 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Troy Melton DET starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 bovada / U +123 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 15% over
O 7.5 8% over
O 8.5 4% over
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
HOU at WSN Jul 8, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSpencer Arrighetti HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 betmgm / U +110 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% under
O 3.5 71% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Foster Griffin WSN starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +127 draftkings / U -148 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 24% over
O 8.5 14% over
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
KCR at NYM Jul 8, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSteven Cruz KCR starter / away
Projected K 2.5 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 70% over
O 2.5 44% under
O 3.5 24% under
O 4.5 11% under
O 5.5 4% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Christian Scott NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 betmgm / U +106 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
PHI at CIN Jul 8, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAlan Rangel PHI starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 bovada / U -130 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Chase Burns CIN starter / home
Projected K 6.9 Actual 2 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +122 fanduel / U -127 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% under
O 3.5 90% under
O 4.5 80% under
O 5.5 67% under
O 6.5 52% under
O 7.5 38% under
O 8.5 26% under
O 9.5 17% under
O 10.5 10% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
CLE at MIN Jul 8, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSlade Cecconi CLE starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -115 betmgm / U +126 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Connor Prielipp MIN starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -150 betmgm / U +127 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
BOS at CHW Jul 8, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJake Bennett BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 bovada / U -125 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Davis Martin CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -128 fanduel / U +110 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% under
O 3.5 69% under
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MIL at STL Jul 8, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Harrison MIL starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 draftkings / U -150 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% under
O 3.5 74% under
O 4.5 58% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Michael McGreevy STL starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -108 betrivers / U -103 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 18% over
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
LAA at TEX Jul 8, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWalbert Urena LAA starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 betmgm / U -111 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% under
O 4.5 58% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MacKenzie Gore TEX starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -145 betonlineag / U +120 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 53% over
O 6.5 38% over
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
ARI at SDP Jul 8, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJose Cabrera ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% under
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Michael King SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +102 betrivers / U -115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
COL at LAD Jul 8, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGabriel Hughes COL starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 7 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% over
O 2.5 60% over
O 3.5 38% over
O 4.5 21% over
O 5.5 10% over
O 6.5 4% over
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Roki Sasaki LAD starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 betmgm / U -102 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.