MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-09 / 26 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
ATL at PIT Jul 9, 10:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryce Elder ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +114 draftkings / U -122 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Mitch Keller PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -137 draftkings / U +112 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
NYY at TBR Jul 9, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPaul Blackburn NYY starter / away
Projected K 2.6 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 72% over
O 2.5 47% over
O 3.5 26% under
O 4.5 12% under
O 5.5 5% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Drew Rasmussen TBR starter / home
Projected K 6.3 Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +120 bovada / U -145 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% under
O 3.5 86% under
O 4.5 73% under
O 5.5 58% under
O 6.5 43% under
O 7.5 30% under
O 8.5 19% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
KCR at NYM Jul 9, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael Wacha KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -114 draftkings / U +100 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Sean Manaea NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -155 betmgm / U +130 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHC at BAL Jul 9, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavid Peterson CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +126 fanduel / U -154 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Trevor Rogers BAL starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 betmgm / U -105 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CLE at MIN Jul 9, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGavin Williams CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +122 fanduel / U -139 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 24% over
O 8.5 14% over
O 9.5 8% over
O 10.5 4% over
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Bailey Ober MIN starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -145 betmgm / U +120 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% over
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
BOS at CHW Jul 9, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPatrick Sandoval BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Anthony Kay CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +132 fanduel / U -161 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
SEA at MIA Jul 9, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryce Miller SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -132 fanduel / U +125 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Janson Junk MIA starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -122 fanduel / U +106 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 49% over
O 4.5 30% over
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
OAK at DET Jul 9, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJosé Suarez OAK starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% under
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Framber Valdez DET starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 fanatics / U -154 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 19% over
O 7.5 10% over
O 8.5 5% over
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
PHI at CIN Jul 9, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJesús Luzardo PHI starter / away
Projected K 7.1 Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +113 draftkings / U -120 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 82% over
O 5.5 69% over
O 6.5 55% over
O 7.5 41% over
O 8.5 29% over
O 9.5 19% over
O 10.5 12% over
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Brady Singer CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -155 betmgm / U +130 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 67%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
MIL at STL Jul 9, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Henderson MIL starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Andre Pallante STL starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -120 betmgm / U +112 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
LAA at TEX Jul 9, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastReid Detmers LAA starter / away
Projected K 6.1 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +118 betrivers / U -130 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 55% over
O 6.5 40% under
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Nathan Eovaldi TEX starter / home
Projected K 7.1 Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +118 fanduel / U -149 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 7.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 82% over
O 5.5 70% over
O 6.5 56% over
O 7.5 42% over
O 8.5 29% over
O 9.5 19% over
O 10.5 12% under
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
ARI at SDP Jul 9, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMerrill Kelly ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -148 draftkings / U +128 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 19% over
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Griffin Canning SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -150 draftkings / U +120 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
COL at SFG Jul 9, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Feltner COL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -149 betonlineag / U +127 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Carson Whisenhunt SFG starter / home
Projected K 3.4 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -152 betrivers / U +125 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 65% over
O 3.5 44% over
O 4.5 26% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.