MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-10 / 28 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
PHI at DET Jul 10, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAaron Nola PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +104 draftkings / U -121 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 17% over
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Jack Flaherty DET starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -128 fanduel / U +115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 53% over
O 6.5 38% under
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
NYY at WSN Jul 10, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Weathers NYY starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +112 fanduel / U -133 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Carson Palmquist WSN starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 4 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
KCR at BAL Jul 10, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLuinder Avila KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 bovada / U -159 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Brandon Young BAL starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betonlineag / U -115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SEA at TBR Jul 10, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLuis Castillo SEA starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 4 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% over
O 3.5 36% over
O 4.5 20% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Nick Martinez TBR starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 bovada / U -141 betrivers 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 79% under
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
CLE at MIA Jul 10, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastParker Messick CLE starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 betonlineag / U -120 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% under
O 2.5 85% under
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 52% under
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Sandy Alcantara MIA starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -140 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% over
O 7.5 15% over
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
CHC at CIN Jul 10, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShota Imanaga CHC starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -107 betrivers / U -106 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Hunter Greene CIN starter / home
Projected K 6.3 Actual 12 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +100 bovada / U -120 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% over
O 5.5 59% over
O 6.5 44% over
O 7.5 30% over
O 8.5 20% over
O 9.5 12% over
O 10.5 7% over
O 11.5 4% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.
BOS at NYM Jul 10, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSonny Gray BOS starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -120 betrivers / U +101 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% under
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Nolan McLean NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -117 draftkings / U +100 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
OAK at CHW Jul 10, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob Lopez OAK starter / away
Projected K 3.4 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% under
O 2.5 65% under
O 3.5 44% under
O 4.5 26% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Sean Burke CHW starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -113 fanduel / U +105 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% over
O 6.5 37% over
O 7.5 24% over
O 8.5 15% over
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
HOU at TEX Jul 10, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHunter Brown HOU starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +119 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% under
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Cal Quantrill TEX starter / home
Projected K 3.3 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +140 betonlineag / U -174 fanduel 3 books at this line
Model over 3.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% under
O 2.5 63% under
O 3.5 41% under
O 4.5 24% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
LAA at MIN Jul 10, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrayson Rodriguez LAA starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 betonlineag / U -120 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% under
O 2.5 74% under
O 3.5 54% under
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Zebby Matthews MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +107 betrivers / U -128 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% under
O 4.5 64% under
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
ATL at STL Jul 10, 6:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChris Sale ATL starter / away
Projected K 6.0 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +116 fanduel / U -141 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 55% under
O 6.5 40% under
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Kyle Leahy STL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -150 betmgm / U +121 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
TOR at SDP Jul 10, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Bieber TOR starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betmgm / U -152 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
JP Sears SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betmgm / U +105 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
ARI at LAD Jul 10, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -149 betonlineag / U +124 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Kyle Hurt LAD starter / home
Projected K 1.9 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 57% under
O 2.5 31% under
O 3.5 14% under
O 4.5 5% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 0% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
COL at SFG Jul 10, 8:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTanner Gordon COL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 betonlineag / U -150 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% under
O 2.5 73% under
O 3.5 53% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Robbie Ray SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +108 draftkings / U -123 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 26%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.