MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-07 / 32 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
MIL at STL Jul 7, 12:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Sproat MIL starter / away
Projected K 3.0 Did not start / void
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 79%
O 2.5 57%
O 3.5 36%
O 4.5 19%
O 5.5 9%
O 6.5 4%
O 7.5 1%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Andre Pallante STL starter / home
Projected K 3.0 Did not start / void
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 79%
O 2.5 57%
O 3.5 35%
O 4.5 19%
O 5.5 9%
O 6.5 4%
O 7.5 1%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
CHC at BAL Jul 7, 4:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMatthew Boyd CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -162 fanduel / U +126 fanduel 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Shane Baz BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -140 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% under
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
NYY at TBR Jul 7, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWill Warren NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -120 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Ian Seymour TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 12 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -108 betrivers / U -103 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% over
O 8.5 10% over
O 9.5 5% over
O 10.5 2% over
O 11.5 1% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.
ATL at PIT Jul 7, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHurston Waldrep ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -108 fanduel / U +100 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% under
O 3.5 69% under
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Paul Skenes PIT starter / home
Projected K 6.3 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -101 draftkings / U -110 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% under
O 5.5 59% under
O 6.5 44% under
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
SEA at MIA Jul 7, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryan Woo SEA starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 draftkings / U -145 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Max Meyer MIA starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +116 fanduel / U -130 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% under
O 5.5 57% under
O 6.5 42% under
O 7.5 29% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
OAK at DET Jul 7, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJ.T. Ginn OAK starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -134 draftkings / U +115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Tarik Skubal DET starter / home
Projected K 6.6 Actual 9 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O +122 draftkings / U -140 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 8.5 22%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% over
O 5.5 63% over
O 6.5 48% over
O 7.5 34% over
O 8.5 22% over
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
HOU at WSN Jul 7, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTatsuya Imai HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -123 betonlineag / U -102 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Andrew Alvarez WSN starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 betmgm / U -103 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
KCR at NYM Jul 7, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSeth Lugo KCR starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 betonlineag / U +107 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Cionel Pérez NYM starter / home
Projected K 2.2 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 64% under
O 2.5 37% under
O 3.5 18% under
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
PHI at CIN Jul 7, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZack Wheeler PHI starter / away
Projected K 6.3 Actual 14 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +112 fanduel / U -130 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 59% over
O 6.5 43% over
O 7.5 30% over
O 8.5 19% over
O 9.5 11% over
O 10.5 6% over
O 11.5 3% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 14 strikeouts.
Andrew Abbott CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -148 betrivers / U +125 fanatics 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% over
O 7.5 19% over
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
CLE at MIN Jul 7, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJoey Cantillo CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -155 betmgm / U +132 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Taj Bradley MIN starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +120 bovada / U -137 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 39% over
O 7.5 26% over
O 8.5 16% over
O 9.5 9% over
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
BOS at CHW Jul 7, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPayton Tolle BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -108 betonlineag / U -104 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Noah Schultz CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -118 betrivers / U +100 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIL at STL Jul 7, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobert Gasser MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +142 fanduel / U -184 fanduel 2 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Hunter Dobbins STL starter / home
Projected K 3.1 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -118 betmgm / U +110 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% over
O 2.5 60% over
O 3.5 38% over
O 4.5 21% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAA at TEX Jul 7, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJosé Soriano LAA starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betrivers / U -135 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jacob deGrom TEX starter / home
Projected K 7.6 Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -108 fanduel / U -105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 86% over
O 5.5 76% over
O 6.5 63% over
O 7.5 49% under
O 8.5 36% under
O 9.5 25% under
O 10.5 16% under
O 11.5 10% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
ARI at SDP Jul 7, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZac Gallen ARI starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -147 draftkings / U +128 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Germán Márquez SDP starter / home
Projected K 3.0 Actual 4 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 79% over
O 2.5 57% over
O 3.5 35% over
O 4.5 19% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TOR at SFG Jul 7, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSpencer Miles TOR starter / away
Projected K 2.3 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +105 betmgm / U -140 betmgm 1 book at this line
Model over 3.5 21%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 67% under
O 2.5 41% under
O 3.5 21% under
O 4.5 9% under
O 5.5 4% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Trevor McDonald SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -125 fanatics / U +110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 77% under
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
COL at LAD Jul 7, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael Lorenzen COL starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -128 draftkings / U +110 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Justin Wrobleski LAD starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +122 fanduel / U -152 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% over
O 8.5 7% over
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.